Who’s set to win the U.S. Women’s Open? Our writers make picks

ERIN, Wis. — We are through 54 holes at Erin Hills, and on Saturday, conditions were brutal. Just one player posted a sub-70 round as the scoring average was over a shot harder than either of the previous two days. Maja Stark emerged from the carnage as the 54-hole leader at seven under, while Julia Lopez Ramirez is just a shot back, followed by a trio of ladies from Japan and then world No. 1 Nelly Korda.

So, who’s slated to take the title come Sunday night? We’ve convened a couple of our on-site staffers — Zephyr Melton and Nick Piastowski — to break it all down.

Zephyr Melton (@zephyrmelton): Well Nick, that was one heck of a Moving Day. What were your biggest takeaways from Round 3?

Nick Piastowski (@nickpia): Erin Hills was the takeaway! That must have been a hoot to watch, if being tested is your thing. Players mostly hung on. Those who were on rose significantly. Just look at Julia Lopez Ramirez — she was in the third-earliest group off the first tee — and on Sunday, she’ll be in the final pairing after a 68, the low round of the day. Thing is, too, it wasn’t really that windy, either. 

Melton: I agree. It felt like a proper Moving Day, where if you posted a solid number, you could shoot up the leaderboard. The margins between birdie and bogey were razor thin. What did you think of the setup today? Was it fair?

Piastowski: I’d give it … a 7.5. Pins seemed right. LOVED that No. 15 was moved up about 100 yards to make it driveable — and Esther Henseleit made a slight mess of things there. I didn’t like that the greens were double-cut and left faster — the players seemed unprepared, though perhaps that’s on them. 

Melton: I loved that Erin Hills had a little spice to it today. It (finally) felt like a proper U.S. Open test. More of that tomorrow, please. What do you make of the leaderboard as we head into the final round?

Piastowski: This is takeaway No. 2. Really good! Young talent. Major winners. Nelly. A dozen players five shots back or better. Sunday should be good theater. 

Melton: It really does feel as if the cream is rising to the top — there was no faking it out there today. I love that there are no pretenders near the top of the leaderboard. Hitters only. Nelly Korda struggled on the front nine as she went out in 40, but she bounced back with a 33 on the back nine to salvage the round. She’s just three shots back heading into Sunday — what do you think of her chances? 

Piastowski: Man, I dunno. She can win, or tie for 25th. That said, if she treads water early, she’s the favorite for me heading into the final nine holes. She’s striking it well. Her length plays her. The crowd wants it for her.  

Melton: Her putter cooled off considerably and it felt like she was back to square one in that regard. I will say, if Nelly can make a few putts early and get that confidence up, she could give it a serious run on Sunday. If she does hope to win her first USWO, she’ll have to hunt down the young Swede Maja Stark. What impressed you most about her today?

Piastowski: Unflappable, it seems to me. Par is your friend at these things, and that’s what she did. And I actually love this quote, when asked about her mentality: “I’ve just been telling myself that when I get nervous over shots, I just tell myself, okay, but how can I make myself proud right now. I make myself proud by sticking to my routines, sticking to my key swing thought, and I think that calms me down and it makes me feel like I’ve done everything that I can and that I can control.”

Melton: Maja looks in total control of her game, and the stats bear that out as she’s positive strokes gained in every category. That said, is there anyone further down the leaderboard that you think could make a run tomorrow?

Piastowski: Charley Hull, why not? How fun would that be! 

Melton: Gimme Gaby Lopez. She was one of nine players to break par on Saturday, and she did so with a triple on the card! She could make a serious run at it. Finally, who’s your pick to hoist the trophy tomorrow evening?

Piastowski: I’ll go … Nelly. She wins major No. 3. In a playoff over Stark. 
Melton: Love the optimism, but I don’t think she’s in control enough on the greens. I’ll take Mao Saigo to complete the second leg of the Grand Slam.