Who our staff is betting on at Oakmont

Scottie Scheffler is different, Luke Clanton says. 

Tell us something we don’t know, right? No two people, of course, are alike — and no one’s like Scheffler, winner of 16 tournaments since 2022, including three majors. But Clanton said he did spot something from him during the Memorial’s final round that struck him. 

It featured his hands. 

“If you watched him play, he threw one fist pump, and he was leading the event,” said Clanton, the 21-year-old who recently turned pro. “He was so locked in on what he was doing.”

Rory McIlroy has been too. He, like Scheffler, has won a major this year. He, like Scheffler, has won three times on the PGA Tour this year. And he, like Scheffler, never gets too high or low, Clanton said last week. Heading into this week’s U.S. Open at Oakmont, their success, their skill and their disposition make for an attractive package, should you be trying to find a winner.

But a small question is, is there anyone else to consider? Are we looking at Scheffler and McIlroy versus the field?

If you’re asking for this author’s opinion, it’s no, and Maja Stark, the U.S. Women’s Open winner, summed things up best there two weeks ago when she said: “I mean, anything can happen. The ball is round. The course is hard.” 

Then again, Scheffler and McIlroy have combined to play in 14 non-team Tour events this year and have won six, or nearly half. 

And they’re different. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.

On to our analysis. 

2025 U.S. Open picks to win 

James Colgan 

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,750. This feels like a five-man race: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Schauffele. For value’s sake, I’ll take the guy with the longest odds of the group.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,750. Don’t let him throw you off the scent with his first non-top-20 major finish in three-plus years or a surprisingly poor putting performance at Memorial. If Xander can find the groove with his driver, he has as good a chance as anybody to win this thing. Don’t forget: He’s played eight U.S. Opens in his life, he’s never finished worse than 14th, and he has six top-7s. Book this man for a win, cover your bases with a top 10.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Collin Morikawa, +2,100: Guys who hit it straight off the tee and in the proper place on the greens will do well at Oakmont. Morikawa fits the bill. You could argue so does Scottie Scheffler, but I’m trying to change things up.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. How can I go with any other player? Scottie is back in alpha mode, and a U.S. Open at Oakmont — golf’s toughest test on the game’s toughest course — will identify the most complete player as champion. That’s Scottie. Third leg of the career grand slam comin’ up!

Zephyr Melton

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. No need to overthink this one. Scottie is back to his dominant form, and so long as he brings his B-game, he’ll be a factor on Sunday. And if he is in the hunt, who’s going to outduel him? So far, the answer has been no one. 

Nick Piastowski

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +750. With high rough, give me the guy who’s hitting wedges into the greens. It’s hard to bet against Scottie Scheffler, but I’m predicting a DeChambeau repeat. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. All Scottie has done lately is win. With the rust from his ravioli injury fully behind him, he has reasserted himself as the dominant force in professional golf. On a track that is going to reward those who play smart, safe golf, Scheffler is the best option to tame Oakmont. At the very least, he is unlikely to take himself out of the equation by compounding his mistakes. I almost went with Jon Rahm here, but at this point, not picking Scheffler feels like malpractice. 

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. I’ve been trying to think of a good reason not to take the best player in the world, but I’m not clever enough to come up with one. The guy rarely has an off week, and even when he does, he contends. There’s not another player in the field you can say that about.

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The big Spaniard is due to close one of these out again, and IF HE PUTTS, Oakmont is a perfect layout for him. I also think he’s getting tired of not being in the who’s-the-best convo these days. He’s going to make us all remember who he is.

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