Who might break out at Oakmont

Phil Mickelson wins the U.S. Open. 

Should you love a storyline bet, you may not find a better one, especially considering:

– Mickelson remains a U.S. Open short of the career grand slam; 

– Mickelson’s hard-luck history with the tournament; 

– His long-shot odds (he’s listed at 300-1);

– And the thought that this year’s event, at Oakmont, may be his final U.S. Open. 

To the last point, Mickelson said this at last week’s LIV Golf event: 

“I haven’t thought about it too much,” he said. “There’s a high likelihood that it will be, but I haven’t really thought about it too much.”

This year, Mickelson’s playing on an exemption earned from winning the 2021 PGA Championship, but it expires at this U.S. Open. There are other avenues into next year’s Open, though he also said last week that he didn’t know if he would enter qualifying. 

Of course, Mickelson could also win this week — at +30,000 odds, too. 

With that, let’s continue to dig. Below, members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis.

2025 U.S. Open sleeper picks to watch

James Colgan 

Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +30,000. In honor of the “high likelihood” that this is Lefty’s last U.S. Open, let’s sprinkle a little on him to make things interesting in his pursuit of the career grand slam.

Dylan Dethier   

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. He’s not in true long-shot territory. (Cameron Young at 150-1 will make you think about some top-10 numbers, and Max Greyserman in 250-1 territory is even more exciting, while Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is worth a look, too.) But Keegan is playing better than you’d think, he’s driving the ball like a stallion and Oakmont is just close enough to the Northeast to give him the vibes he found in an Aronimink win all those years ago. Who better to win the U.S. Open than the U.S. Ryder Cup captain?

Jack Hirsh 

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. 85-to-1 for the guy who nearly kept Rory McIlroy from winning the Grand Slam is criminal. Rose has won two of his 11 PGA Tour titles in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, including his only major down the PA turnpike at Merion.

Jessica Marksbury

Sleeper pick: Sam Burns, +7,500. If the greens are in fact running at 14+ on the Stimpmeter, good putters will prevail, and Sam is among the best on Tour. Plus, he has a pretty good U.S. Open record: T27, T32 and T9 in his past three appearances.

Zephyr Melton 

Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +5,500. The dude has been on a heater. Why not throw a little money on him as a long-shot pick? 

Nick Piastowski 

Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +12,000. The form hasn’t been there. But why not place a nickel on the guy who won the last time the U.S.Open was played at Oakmont?

Josh Schrock

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. Last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, Jim Furyk finished T2. I think there will be at least one old lion hanging around on the weekend in Western Pennsylvania. Rose seems to have finally nursed his wounds from his Masters loss, and I think he’ll find a way to be in contention come Saturday and Sunday. I’d also look at Jason Day at +8,000.

Josh Sens

Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +11,000. The fairways are wider at Oakmont than they were when DJ won in 2016 and the greens are larger. Driving and iron play still matter a lot, of course. But the biggest test is going to come on greens that famously run as slick as skating rinks. Putting will be at a premium. So if we’re looking for a dark horse, why not a guy who rolls it as well as pretty much anyone?

Johnny Wunder  

Sleeper pick: Tommy Fleetwood, +3,250. Oddly, it’s his iron play that has failed him recently so if that’s even remotely good, I feel like this could be his time.

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