This year’s most intriguing matchup is now about four months away, with Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) set to face Terence “Bud” Crawford (41-0-0, 31 KOs) in a clash at 168 lbs. Both fighters are coming off of fights that presented unforeseen challenges in different ways. For Canelo, he faced a fighter who was unwilling to engage for the duration of the bout, while Crawford seemed to have difficulty adjusting to a heavier division, where his punches didn’t carry the same kind of venom that they did at 147.
Oscar De La Hoya has framed this match as a battle between two shot fighters, probably because he has no dog in the fight. However, both fighters have been judged somewhat harshly for their most recent performances.
When Canelo faced Scull, Scull was content to strafe, backpedal, and leap backwards in order to avoid engaging with his opponent. In the few instances where Canelo was actually able to catch up to Scull, his punches looked as sharp and powerful as they’ve looked in other recent fights. One valid knock against Alvarez is that he can be discouraged when things aren’t going his way. Though he never seemed to lose control of the fight, he did seem to lose the motivation to try to track his man down and put him out. For most of the fight, he was content to simply pressure Scull while remaining within his comfort zone and racking up points with his aggression.
One fight that viewers can contrast this effort with is Naoya Inoue’s fight against Paul Butler. Rather than concede that he would be unable to catch someone who was single-mindedly dedicated to surviving on fight night, Inoue tried everything he could think of to get to Butler. He tried cutting off the ring, giving ground, and taunting before eventually deciding to throw caution to the wind and go in for the kill a little more recklessly, ultimately ending the fight.
For all of Canelo’s greatness, in his fights against Mayweather, Bivol, and Scull, when he was unable to find success with the tools in his toolbox, he never tried thinking outside of the box. While many have focused on how Crawford may be able to find success by using his feet to stay out of range, Crawford will be 38 by the time they fight in September. Additionally, Crawford has rarely gotten on his bicycle throughout his career, even less so in the later stages of it. Crawford and BoMac have likely spent a lot of time working on ways to frustrate Canelo, who does tend to stick to the same handful of combinations. Granted, Canelo usually finds great ways to get those combinations off when combined with his steady pressure and responsible defense while moving in.
In Crawford’s most recent fight, he won a gritty decision against Israil Madrimov. Many people focused on Crawford’s lack of ability to hurt Madrimov, which is a valid concern considering he’ll need to jump up two more weight classes to face off against arguably the best chin in boxing. The other thing people fixated on was how many punches he threw and failed to land. He threw 433 punches and landed only 95 of them, achieving 22% punch accuracy over 12 rounds to win the fight. The prevailing opinion tended to be that Crawford is getting older and less effective, but the more likely explanation is that, as the smaller man coming up to face a champion in a new weight class, Crawford needed to throw a lot more punches to keep the bigger guy off of him. Rather than a ping against him, this should be seen as an adjustment that he made to earn a tough victory.
That being said, come September, Crawford will have his hands full against the relentless pressure that will be coming from a naturally much larger man in Canelo, who has proven that even as a small 168 lb. fighter, his power is still enough to rattle opponents who regularly weigh around 15 lbs more than him on fight night.
People who back Crawford tend to believe that the deciding factor will be Crawford’s ring IQ, often claiming that it will be a performance akin to Mayweather’s masterclass against a much younger Canelo. Canelo’s fans push back by asserting that Canelo has grown tremendously since that fight, which would be foolish to deny. But just how skilled is Crawford? The answer is, skilled enough to dispel the old adage that “a good big man always beats a good little man” in the minds of the boxing public. The fact that this fight’s possible outcome is being debated so fiercely indicates enormous respect for Bud’s mastery of his craft.
Although Crawford’s level of skill has rarely been seen, people shouldn’t discount Canelo’s ring IQ in addition to his imposing physical ability. It can take years to fully adjust to increased muscle mass. It will be interesting to see how Crawford is able to handle power shots from someone who has been campaigning three weight classes higher than him for a considerable amount of time. Despite Crawford being taller and having longer arms, Canelo’s frame is much more robust and might prove to be impervious to the naturally smaller man’s best shots. Conversely, Crawford is uniquely physically strong, with a background in wrestling, and incredible athleticism.
The natural inclination would be to pick Canelo to win due to his size advantage in addition to being a great boxer himself, but with so many oddball factors, the matchup remains incredibly intriguing and worthy of discussion. Both fighters have strong fan bases and even crossover among fans that is sure to attract a sizable audience. This appears to be a great chance for boxing to make good on its promise to entertain if both fighters show up on fight night.
Who is your pick?
Last Updated on 05/16/2025
