2025 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Oakmont 

Bryson DeChambeau says he plans to keep things simple. Execute shots. Find fairways. Avoid three-putts. Stay out of the rough. 

Of course, if only it were that simple, especially at vaunted Oakmont. 

DeChambeau even vouched for the difficulty of the course, at the start of a YouTube video he’d shot there. 

“The fairways are incredibly narrow, the greens are so fast they inspired the creation of the Stimpmeter, and the rough is more than 5 inches deep,” he said. “This course doesn’t just challenge your game, it challenges your sanity.”

And yet, as you try to find a winner for this week’s U.S. Open, you may not need to look further than DeChambeau. He’s in form, having won once on LIV Golf this season and posting a pair of top five finishes in the year’s first two majors (tied for fifth at the Masters, and tied for second at the PGA Championship). He’s long, which should neutralize some of Oakmont’s defense — wedges out of the rough will be easier than any other club. 

And he can call on history. DeChambeau’s won a pair of U.S. Open titles, on two other sanity-challengers: Winged Foot in 2020, and Pinehurst No. 2, last year. 

“Going back-to-back would be great,” he said. “Three in a row would be an even better accomplishment.

“So it is in the back of my head. How am I preparing for it? Just like I would any other tournament.” 

Simple enough. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2025 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

James Colgan

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,750. This feels like a five-man race: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Schauffele. For value’s sake, I’ll take the guy with the longest odds of the group.

Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +30,000. In honor of the “high likelihood” that this is Lefty’s last U.S. Open, let’s sprinkle a little on him to make things interesting in his pursuit of the career grand slam.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2,000. Don’t let him throw you off the scent with his first non-top-20 major finish in three-plus years or a surprisingly poor putting performance at Memorial. If Xander can find the groove with his driver, he has as good a chance as anybody to win this thing. Don’t forget: He’s played eight U.S. Opens in his life, he’s never finished worse than 14th, and he has six top-7s. Book this man for a win, cover your bases with a top 10.

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. He’s not in true long-shot territory. (Cameron Young at 150-1 will make you think about some top-10 numbers, and Max Greyserman in 250-1 territory is even more exciting, while Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is worth a look, too.) But Keegan is playing better than you’d think, he’s driving the ball like a stallion and Oakmont is just close enough to the Northeast to give him the vibes he found in an Aronimink win all those years ago. Who better to win the U.S. Open than the U.S. Ryder Cup captain …?

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Collin Morikawa, +2,100: Guys who hit it straight off the tee and in the proper place on the greens will do well at Oakmont. Morikawa fits the bill. You could argue so does Scottie Scheffler, but I’m trying to change things up.

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. 85-to-1 for the guy who nearly kept Rory McIlroy from winning the Grand Slam is criminal. Rose has won two of his 11 PGA Tour titles in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, including his only major down the PA turnpike at Merion.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. How can I go with any other player? Scottie is back in alpha mode, and a U.S. Open at Oakmont — golf’s toughest test on the game’s toughest course — will identify the most complete player as champion. That’s Scottie. Third leg of the career grand slam comin’ up!

Sleeper pick: Sam Burns, +7,500. If the greens are in fact running at 14+ on the Stimpmeter, good putters will prevail, and Sam is among the best on Tour. Plus, he has a pretty good U.S. Open record: T27, T32 and T9 in his past three appearances.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. No need to overthink this one. Scottie is back to his dominant form, and so long as he brings his B-game, he’ll be a factor on Sunday. And if he is in the hunt, who’s going to outduel him? So far, the answer has been no one. 

Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +5,500. The dude has been on a heater. Why not throw a little money on him as a long-shot pick? 

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +750. With high rough, give me the guy who’s hitting wedges into the greens. It’s hard to bet against Scottie Scheffler, but I’m predicting a DeChambeau repeat. 

Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +12,000. The form hasn’t been there. But why not place a nickel on the guy who won the last time the U.S.Open was played at Oakmont?

Josh Schrock

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. All Scottie has done lately is win. With the rust from his ravioli injury fully behind him, he has reasserted himself as the dominant force in professional golf. On a track that is going to reward those who play smart, safe golf, Scheffler is the best option to tame Oakmont. At the very least, he is unlikely to take himself out of the equation by compounding his mistakes. I almost went with Jon Rahm here, but at this point, not picking Scheffler feels like malpractice. 

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. Last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, Jim Furyk finished T2. I think there will be at least one old lion hanging around on the weekend in Western Pennsylvania. Rose seems to have finally nursed his wounds from his Masters loss, and I think he’ll find a way to be in contention come Saturday and Sunday. I’d also look at Jason Day at +8,000.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. I’ve been trying to think of a good reason not to take the best player in the world, but I’m not clever enough to come up with one. The guy rarely has an off week, and even when he does, he contends. There’s not another player in the field you can say that about.

Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +11,000. The fairways are wider at Oakmont than they were when DJ won in 2016 and the greens are larger. Driving and iron play still matter a lot, of course. But the biggest test is going to come on greens that famously run as slick as skating rinks. Putting will be at a premium. So if we’re looking for a dark horse, why not a guy who rolls it as well as pretty much anyone?

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The big Spaniard is due to close one of these out again, and IF HE PUTTS, Oakmont is a perfect layout for him. I also think he’s getting tired of not being in the who’s-the-best convo these days. He’s going to make us all remember who he is.

Sleeper pick: Tommy Fleetwood, +3,250. Oddly, it’s his iron play that has failed him recently so if that’s even remotely good, I feel like this could be his time.

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